Canadian Crisis

On this crazy eve of Free Agency, the Canadian teams have rocked the hockey world. The Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson trade seemed to be the big blockbuster, until minutes later, news broke that PK Subban had been traded for Shea Weber. Both trades appear to be one-for-one trades with no salary retained either way.

The NJ-EDM trade appears to be the most lopsided trade in recent memory, including the JVR for Luke Schenn trade. Edmonton trades a 24-year-old goal scorer that plays the shallowest position in the league, left wing. The first overall pick in 2010 is easily one of the top five LW in the league, commonly believed to be in the top 3 behind guys named Ovechkin and Benn, both Hart Trophy winners.  His addition will certainly be welcome on a New Jersey team that scored the least goals in the NHL in 2015-2016. It is possible that Edmonton traded Hall to make room for free agent Milan Lucic, but Lucic is older and has worse stats on a better team. 

Adam Larsson has had his share of growing pains in the NHL. Not thought of as a top pair defenseman, Larsson was thrust in that role due to New Jersey’s lack of depth.  His puck possession stats have dropped since 2013-2014, with a CF% of 43.5% this passed season. As a comparison, Luke Schenn posted a 45.7% while he was with the Flyers and Nick Schultz has 46.3%. Adam Larrson plays tougher minutes than Schultz or Schenn, but all have some of the bottom CF% on their respective teams. When above 50%, CF% means that the team controlled the puck more often than not when the player was on the ice. Both New Jersey and Edmonton were poor possession teams, but Taylor Hall managed to post a CF of 52.5%.

As for the Subban – Weber trade, it seems to be due to the Canadian’s Management Team backing the coach over the player. PK Subban had a rocky history with Michel Therrien, bringing to mind Patrick Roy’s poor relationship with coach Mario Tremblay. How did that work out for Montreal? Weber, while still a premier physical defenseman, is on the wrong side of 30 at age 31. Subban, the 2013 Norris Trophy winner (beating out Weber), just turned 27. While both are considered top pairing, right-handed defenseman, Subban is more of a puck mover that will drive the play. Weber had a poor season in 2015-2016; for the first time in his career, he had more offensive zone starts than defensive, which is troubling considering he is regarded as a strong defensive player. Why would Nashville not play their best defensive player in the defensive zone?

The knee-jerk reaction is that the teams from Canada lost both trades. Had the Subban-Weber trade happened two or three seasons ago, it may be a different story. The Hall-Larrson trade is inexcusable and unless Larrson turns into Victor Hedman, will go down as one of the worst trades of all time. Next time a team wants to rush into a trade and get fleeced, call Hextall.

All stats are from www.hockey-reference.com.

Comparisons are from http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com

Worst is Best

Photo:USA Today Images from CSN Philly

Over the last few games, the Flyers have lost to powerhouses such as the Hurricanes, the Avalanche, and the Coyotes. These teams are the 8^th worst, 4^th worst, and 2^nd worst teams in the NHL. This, ladies and gentlemen, are where the Flyers belong. They are not a play-off team; they are not even a bubble team. Currently, they are 25^th out of 30.

            A few years ago, the Calgary Flames were a middling team. They have not made the playoffs since 2009, just missing out for 3 years in a row before slowly getting worse. They did not make smart moves, just getting older each year. This is the danger that the Flyers are facing. They are handcuffed by albatross contracts, without the players living up to their contracts (looking at you Macdonald) or getting a contract based on their reputation (see: Lecavalier, Vincent).

Records in Final 2 Months 2013 season
Team	April	March	Overall
Colorado	4-8-2	4-10-1	16-25-7
Florida	4-8-0	5-10-1	15-27-6
Tampa Bay	2-8-3	6-8-0	18-26-4
Nashville	2-9-2	5-7-2	16-23-9
Carolina	3-10-2	6-7-1	19-25-4
Calgary	7-8-0	6-8-0	19-25-4
Edmonton	5-9-0	6-6-3	19-22-7
Buffalo	8-4-0	5-5-5	21-21-6
New Jersey *	4-8-1	5-5-5	19-19-10
Dallas	6-7-1	6-6-1	22-22-4
Philadelphia	8-5-0	4-6-2	23-22-3
*pick traded to VAN

At the same time, the Flyers are not drafting low enough to get a top talent player in the draft. They have picked 17^th, 11^th, and 20^th the last 3 drafts. They did get Sean Couturier at 8^th overall, but they got that pick from the Jeff Carter trade. Samuel Morin, drafted 11^th overall in 2013, is a good player and a solid prospect. The Flyers were in line for the 4^th overall pick until they closed the season strong, based on the strong play of Steve Mason. While this was great for morale, it ultimately cost them Seth Jones, who is another level better than Morin.

They worst possible thing for the Flyers would be to miss the playoffs and miss out on a top draft pick, especially this year. This is expected to be a deep draft with a plethora of top end talent. Future top pick Connor McDavid is projected to be a Sidney Cosby type talent; consolation prize Jack Eichel will be a franchise center. There are other players in (F) Dylan Strome, (D) Noah Hanifan, and (D) Oliver Kylington that will change the futures of teams.

If the Flyers miss the playoffs and miss out on a top player, this is a wasted season. The status quo is not working. Either GM Ron Hextall needs to move out players to acquire the right mix or start over. The team has too many slow, defensive defensemen and too few natural wingers. They are one of the slowest teams in the league. Defensive prospects Travis Sanheim and Shayne Gostisbehere are phenomenal skaters and Robert Hagg and Samuel Morin skate extremely well. The forward cupboard is much thinner; it is virtually empty with the promotion of Scott Laughton to the NHL.

If the Flyers are able to add a top prospect in the draft, it will be a major step in the right direction. If they are able to add additional first round picks through trade, it will only accelerate the process. The biggest upcoming free agent that they have is Ray Emery, who can be replaced by Rob Zepp. In 2016, the restrictive free agents are Couturier and Brayden Schenn. Unrestrictive free agents include Braydon Coburn, Luke Schenn, Jake Voracek, and Nik Grossmann. To the right playoff team, Coburn may be able to fetch a first round pick, Schenn a second and a prospect, and Grossmann possibly a third if a team panics. They should not move all of them out, but if a team is willing to pay the right price, they are all available.

Current Points
25	Flyers	35
26	Devils	33
27	Coyotes	32
28	Sabres	31
29	Hurricanes	26
30	Oilers	25

         

  If Hextall can get a top five pick and another first round pick later in the draft, combined with the development of prospects, this team can make the playoffs. If they can add McDavid or Eichel, they could compete for the Cup in a few years. This year is not the year. They are a bottom 10 team in the league. If they are going to miss the playoffs, why not go all out and tank for a top pick? They must commit to the tank, start by trading off assets, and stockpiling picks and prospects. If they think they can compete, it will take to many significant assets to get players that can help the team. They need to facilitate the tank by trading off players and getting value for them. Edmonton has been rumored to covet Coburn. Could a package including Coburn, B. Schenn, and Hagg/Sanheim get their 2015 first? They offered two second round picks for Coburn before, so they value him and he fills a need for them. The Flyers may have to add to that package, but Edmonton has been ridiculed for their 3 straight first overall picks, so a fourth in six years is a new low. They may need to make a move showing their fan base that they are not willing to be bottom feeders forever.

As much as owner Ed Snider will hate it, the Flyers should treat this as a lost season. The rebuild cannot take 3-5 years. Core players Claude Giroux, Voracek, and Wayne Simmonds are entering their prime now. This must be a speedy rebuild; it is the only way Mr. Snider will accept it. The best thing for the Flyers would be to be the worst.