Premature Speculation

One of the biggest questions the Philadelphia Flyers face going into the season is how the Top 6 will line up. The Flyers currently have no top line left winger and too many top 6 centers. MVP candidate Claude Giroux is a lock as the top center and Jake Vorachek and Wayne Simmonds are the top right wingers on the team. The other half of the top six are up for grabs. Brayden Schenn and Vincent Lecavalier are expected to take two of the top spots, but in what roles?

Ron Hextall has said that he likes pairing two forwards together on a line. It is all but guaranteed that Giroux and Vorachek will play together. The third line has Sean Couturier and Matt Read. Hextall said that Schenn and Simmonds are developing chemistry. That leaves Lecavalier, Michael Raffl, Jason Akeson, and RJ Umberger left to figure out the left wing assignments. This will be up to the coach, Craig Berube.

In regards to Vinny Lecavalier, it depends on what Hextall wants to do. He does not seem like someone that will let a contract dictate playing time, or would put that pressure on a coach. Lecavalier has said that he feels most comfortable at center and has not preformed well at wing. Giroux and Couturier are cemented in at two of the four center spots. Lecavalier played on the fourth line in the playoff, centering Zac Rinaldo and Adam Hall, but are they going to pay him $4.5 million a season (and $6 million this year) to play 7-10 minutes a night? More importantly, are they going to waste $4.5 million in cap space on 7-10 minutes?

With this in mind, it would seem that the best way solve this would be to play Schenn with Giroux and Vorachek on the top line. He would be out of position, but it would be a “promotion” in a similar way that Paul Holmgren was “promoted” to President.  He may not earn it, but other factors dictate it as a move that must be made. The organization cannot afford to keep Lecavalier hidden. They must play him to build up trade value.

Lecavalier was never a strong defensive player, and, barring a Steve Yzerman-type turnaround, will never be. At best, he can be average defensively in the right system. Likewise, Wayne Simmonds is not a great defensive player. If those two will play together, the third man on the line must be able to pick up the slack and be a good backchecker with above-average skating. Two players fit that description, Michael Raffl and RJ Umberger. Raffl played much of last season on the Giroux line, but would fit better on the second line with two natural finishers, which is not his strong point.

Training camp is not even close, (56 days until the preseason, but who is counting?) but the roster can be figured out.

B. Schenn-Giroux-Vorachek

Raffl-Lecavalier-Simmonds

Umberger-Couturier-Read

Rinaldo-Center not named Laughton-Akeson

The fourth line has the most flexibility for a player to make the team as a non-roster camp invite. Scott Laughton, barring a massive trade, will start the season in Lehigh Valley, centering the Phantoms top line. Chris VandeVelde seems to be in the best spot, but the team typically signs an older, defensive first center, like the still unsigned Adam Hall. It is still far too early to project a lineup, but given the cap space, the Flyers have few moves that can be made until they are able to place Chris Pronger on LTIR.

What Just Happened?

Tye McGinn to Sharks for a 2015 3^rd round pick

Sign RW Andrew Gordon (1 year, two-way)

Sign Nick Schultz (1 year, $1.25 million)

Sign Zack Stortini (1 year, two-way)

Resigned Jason Akeson (1 year, two-way)

Signed Blair Jones (1 year, two-way)

Resigned Ray Emery (1 year, $1 million)

Signed Rob Zepp (1 year, two-way)

Signed Chris VandeVelde (1 year, two-way)

Pierre-Edouard Bellamere (1 year, one way)

The Flyers have made several moves, mostly signing players that will fight it out on their fourth line. For the ones that do not make the cut, they will fill up the Lehigh Phantoms roster in the AHL. Only three players have signed one-way contracts, forward Bellamere, defenseman Schultz, and goalie Emery. Bellamere was a highly sought after free agent from Europe. Schultz is projected to be a 6^th or 7^th defenseman. Emery was the Flyers’ backup last year. He has a great relationship with starter Steve Mason.

While these players may see some time with the big club, the majority will not be regulars, with only Emery and Schultz expected to get a roster spot. The rest of the recent signings will fight for the final roster spot(s) among themselves and top prospect Scott Laughton.

Laughton played five games with the big club as an 18 year old and several preseason games the passed two years. Laughton is expected to play in the AHL to start out this year. He seems NHL ready, but the organization like for prospects to play in the AHL before becoming an NHL regular. With the Phantoms, Laughton will play top line minutes, minutes that he would not see with the Flyers given their depth at center.

With the Flyers tight on cap space, they would not be able to fit many free agents under the ceiling. If Vincent Lecavalier is moved, then a spot opens up. The Flyers could use one of their recently signed players, or they could make a move for a reclamation player, such as former first round picks Peter Mueller, Devin Setoguchi, or Kevin Hayes.

Peter Mueller was discussed in the Potential Off-Season Acquisitions blog. The former eighth overall pick is reportedly being sought after by multiple teams. Last playing for the Florida Panthers in 2013, Mueller put up eight goals and 17 points in 43 games. He has had health issues in the past, and has only played more than 55 games in his first two seasons. If he takes a pay cut from his last NHL contract at $1.725 million, he could be an intriguing potential acquisition.

Another former high draft pick, Devin Setoguchi could be on the team’s radar. The durable forward is a former 30 goal scorer, albeit playing with Joe Thornton. He played on a bad Winnipeg team this passed year, so his value is at an all-time low. He could sign a one way deal worth about $1.5 million with the right team to reestablish his value.

Finally, Kevin Hayes, the 24^th overall pick in 2010 by Chicago, does not seem close to a deal with the Blackhawks. If he does not sign by August 15, he will become an unrestricted free agent. It seems that he wants to sign with a team that will guarantee his a roster spot next season. He is a big, two-way winger that shined this year alongside Johnny Gadreau on the Boston College Eagles. If the Flyers are able to move out a top nine forward, they could offer Hayes a chance to play big minutes on a potential playoff team.

News came out Sunday that Nashville center Mike Fischer ruptured his ACL and will be out 4-6 months. Will they pull the trigger on the Lecavalier deal that has been rumored to be on the table?

Potential Off Season Acquisitions

This was going to be a blog on potential acquisitions to fill out the Flyers roster. The cap had other ideas. It was announced on Friday that the cap would be $69 million, rather than the $71 that it was expected to be. The Flyers are currently over $200,000 over cap. Once Chris Pronger is put on the Long-Term Injured Reserve, the team will have about $4.7 million in cap space. As per the current CBA, teams can go over the cap in the summer by 10%, so the Flyers still have some space to fill out the holes in their roster.

The Flyers need two forwards, unless they want to play Jay Rosehill every game. He only played 34 games last season, so it seems like he is not a regular player in the team’s eyes. With the departure of Hal Gill to free agency and Erik Gustafsson to the KHL, the team also needs a seventh defenseman that could potentially see significant time due to injuries.

Up front, the top six is looking like Claude Giroux, Jake Vorachek, Wayne Simmonds, Brayden Schenn, Vincent Lecavalier, and one open slot, assuming that newly acquired RJ Umberger will play on the left wing with Sean Couturier and Matt Read. The Flyer have Michael Raffl, The final players currently signed are wingers Rosehill and Zac Rinaldo. As they play a similar role, it seems unlikely that both will be dressed for the same game. Recently signed Pierre-Eduoard Bellamere was signed to a one-way contract, having previously played in the Elitserien. He is expected to fight for a roster spot.

Scott Laughton, the Flyers top prospect is also expected to fight for a roster spot. A smart, two-way center, he has nothing left to prove in the OHL. With the Flyers depth down the middle, he could potentially be a fourth line center. The Flyers like to develop their prospects in the AHL, and will most likely do the same with Laughton. Expect him to play at least half a season with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, like Claude Giroux, until injuries or trades open up a spot for him with the big club.

First up, the only free agents left, restricted or not, that will likely be resigned are Jason Akeson and Tye McGinn, both of whom received qualifying offers. Both have spent short stints up with the big club. They are in a similar spot, as they will be 24 by the start of the season. This season could be a make or break, where they develop into NHL regulars or become career minor league players.

Externally, there are several possibilities. With the current cap situation, the options quickly dwindle. The players that the Flyers can afford will not likely be game-changers; more likely, they will be flawed players. These players will either be lacking in a major aspect, one-dimensional, or reclamation projects. A few forwards available are unrestricted free agents Milan Michalek, Dustin Penner, Brian Boyle, Mason Raymond, and Peter Mueller. Defensively, the available players are even fewer; UFA TJ Brenna is one option, while RFA Jonathan Blum is another.

Up front, Brian Boyle is riding a strong playoff run with the Rangers. He is looking for about $2 million a season and an increased role. He would fit with the Flyers as the perfect 4^th line, penalty kill specialist that they usually sign, however he has priced himself out of the Flyers’ range with his demands.

Milan Michalek and Dustin Penner are both are on the downswing of their careers. Michalek was stagnant in Ottawa until the put him on a like with Ales Hemsky when they acquired him. He was a scoring left winger with speed; something that the Flyers need. He has never scored less than 17 goals when playing a full season. However, the question is: is he still a 15-20 goal scorer? At only 29, he still has some gas left in the tank, but Ottawa’s not resigning him raises red flags. He could be a good player until some prospects are ready, but he may go to Arizona, to play with his brother.

Penner is big. More accurately, he is huge. He would be the biggest player on the Flyers, with only Luke Schenn and Nicklas Grossmann in his weight class. Like those players, his skating and speed are not good and will not get better. The 31 year old also has conditioning concerns. Despite this, he has talent. In half of his 8 NHL seasons he has scored more than 20 goals. He is the most recent player to change teams via an offer sheet, so he was coveted by other teams at one point.

Mason Raymond is player that the Flyers could target. Capitalizing on a try-out contract offered by the Maple Leafs last season, Raymond earned a guaranteed contract this time around. He is a speedy, offensive left winger that could play a scoring role or checking role, depending on the team’s need. This is the type of player that needs to be a high priority for the Flyers.

On the defensive side of the puck, the Flyers need a seventh defenseman. They could also use a top-six defender if they move out some salary in Grossman, Schenn, or Andrew Macdonald. Their defense is severely lacking offensive-minded players. Only Mark Streit at 36 and Kimmo Timonen at 39 can be considered offensive-minded. The Flyers tried to solve this when they signed Shea Weber to an offer sheet, but Nashville matched it. With the majority of front-loaded signing bonus paid out, Nashville have no reason to trade him and less of a reason to trade him to the Flyers.

If the Flyers want to go the offer sheet route again, they could sign Jonathon Blum of the Minnesota Wild. He is buried in their depth chart and has been surpassed by more talented, more recently drafted players. He has been tendered a qualifying offer by the Wild, so they would be entitled to compensation. The former Nashville first round pick has yet to establish himself as an NHL regular, however he has the talent. He is more NHL ready than the Flyers prospects and could be the type of low-risk/high-reward player that could make a difference.

Local player TJ Brennan is a UFA, most recently with Toronto. He has been a force in the AHL, scoring 25 goals as a defenseman. It is disturbing that he has been unable to crack the NHL roster of three different teams, including the powerhouse Florida Panthers. The former Moorestown, NJ resident was a high pick in his draft year, going 31^st overall. He could also be a low-risk/high-reward player that would not require a large cap hit.

Unless the Flyers make a massive trade, their options are very limited. Expect a quieter free agency from the Flyers. There are rumors about Evander Kane and Dustin Byfuglien from Winnipeg, but they would require multiple pieces going the other way, most likely including Brayden Schenn and Braydon Coburn. Ryan Johansen from Columbus is unhappy with his team and their contract offer. The Flyers tried to acquire him in the Jeff Carter trade, but the Blue Jackets were unwilling to part with him. He wants a long-term deal, while the team wants a bridge deal. The Flyers like to make a splash, but the best move may be the smaller move this season.