Monday, September 8, 2014

Philadelphia Flyers Defensive Pairings

Now that it seems that the Flyers have solved the inconsistency between the pipes, they can now focus on the defense. GM Ron Hextall mentioned finding a balance between puck moving defenseman and defensive defenseman. The Flyers clearly have two of each, and two that do not fit into either category. 

On the offensive side of the puck, the prime puck movers were going to be veterans Kimmo Timonen and Mark Streit. Timonen briefly flirted with retirement this offseason, before ultimately deciding to resign on a cap-friendly deal. Recently, Timonen was diagnosed with blood clots, leading to the signing of free agent Michael Del Zotto.

A former first round pick, Del Zotto has fallen quickly. Originally, he was be a key component of the New York Rangers defense, but fell out of favor with coach John Tortorella and subsequent coach Allain Vigneault. He was traded to the Nashville Predators, but was unable to secure regular playing time. Although he was a Restricted Free Agent, the Predators chose not to qualify him, making him a free agent. The Flyers were interested on him on July 1, but once Timonen went down, Hextall moved quickly to sign him.

A free agent signing last off-season, Mark Streit is expected to help fill the void left by Timonen’s absence. He is more offensive minded than Timonen, while lacking defensively. He is not terrible defensively, but calling him average would be a compliment. This coming season, he needs to step up his game.

Defensively, Luke Schenn and Nicklas Grossmann are the two defensive pillars; they are strong defensively, but lack mobility. Schenn has shown flashes of offensive potential and can make a good first pass, but nothing consistent. He is prone to pinching at inopportune times and takes himself out of the play going for the big hit. Grossmann plays a strong positional game and can take a lot of abuse, but is very slow. He can be beat on the rush or by more agile players.

Coburn and Macdonald do not fit either traditional definition of offensive or defensive defenseman. Coburn is the longest tenured Flyer and the de facto #1 now that Timonen is out. Still an inconsistent player, Coburn can dominate an entire game and keep the best players of the world in check. He has done this repeatedly to Evegeni Malkin. He will then make a boneheaded play and allow a fourth line grinder to turn him inside out.

Macdonald is an advanced statistical nightmare. Somehow, he managed to lead the Flyers defensemen in average time on ice in the playoffs despite being the worst defenseman statistically, no matter what stat you use, Corsi%, Corsi Rel%, Fenwick %, and any other one. He was only a -2 in plus/minus, so he has that going for him. But that is about it. Hopefully he steps it up. He is the second highest paid player on the roster behind Claude Giroux. He has to play like it.

To start the season, expect the Flyers to keep Streit and Grossmann together. The other four defensemen will play together to see who can develop chemistry, but chances are, it will be a Macdonald/Schenn and Coburn/Del Zotto pairing, however I would not be surprised to see Macdonald/Coburn and Schenn/Del Zotto.


Most Common Defensive Pairings 2013-2014 Season
Defenseman 1
Defenseman 2
Frequency
Braydon Coburn
Kimmo Timonen
21.20%
Nicklas Grossmann
Mark Streit
19.79%
Braydon Coburn
Nicklas Grossmann
9.13%
Luke Schenn
Erik Gustafsson
8.66%
Luke Schenn
Andrej Meszaros
7.74%
Luke Schenn
Andrew Macdonald
5.84%
Luke Schenn
Mark Streit
4.30%
Mark Streit
Andrej Meszaros
3.86%
Braydon Coburn
Mark Streit
2.05%
Nicklas Grossmann
Luke Schenn
2.02%
Source: http://leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/philadelphia-flyers/?team=philadelphia-flyers&strength=EV&gametype=ALL


Most Common Defensive Pairings Last 10 games 2013-2014 Season
Defenseman 1
Defenseman 2
Frequency
Luke Schenn
Andrew Macdonald
19.85%
Braydon Coburn
Kimmo Timonen
19.33%
Nicklas Grossmann
Mark Streit
18.19%
Luke Schenn
Erik Gustafsson
9.85%
Mark Streit
Andrew Macdonald
8.34%
Braydon Coburn
Andrew Macdonald
6.02%
Mark Streit
Hal Gill
5.40%
Braydon Coburn
Nicklas Grossmann
5.21%
Braydon Coburn
Mark Streit
2.18%
Nicklas Grossmann
Luke Schenn
1.18%
Source: http://leftwinglock.com/line-combinations/philadelphia-flyers/?team=philadelphia-flyers&strength=EV&gametype=10



Advanced stats are courtesy of Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201314&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=22&pos=defense&minutes=100&disp=1&sort=HARTp&sortdir=DESC