Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Canadian Crisis



On this crazy eve of Free Agency, the Canadian teams have rocked the hockey world. The Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson trade seemed to be the big blockbuster, until minutes later, news broke that PK Subban had been traded for Shea Weber. Both trades appear to be one-for-one trades with no salary retained either way.
The NJ-EDM trade appears to be the most lopsided trade in recent memory, including the JVR for Luke Schenn trade. Edmonton trades a 24-year-old goal scorer that plays the shallowest position in the league, left wing. The first overall pick in 2010 is easily one of the top five LW in the league, commonly believed to be in the top 3 behind guys named Ovechkin and Benn, both Hart Trophy winners.  His addition will certainly be welcome on a New Jersey team that scored the least goals in the NHL in 2015-2016. It is possible that Edmonton traded Hall to make room for free agent Milan Lucic, but Lucic is older and has worse stats on a better team. 
Adam Larsson has had his share of growing pains in the NHL. Not thought of as a top pair defenseman, Larsson was thrust in that role due to New Jersey’s lack of depth.  His puck possession stats have dropped since 2013-2014, with a CF% of 43.5% this passed season. As a comparison, Luke Schenn posted a 45.7% while he was with the Flyers and Nick Schultz has 46.3%. Adam Larrson plays tougher minutes than Schultz or Schenn, but all have some of the bottom CF% on their respective teams. When above 50%, CF% means that the team controlled the puck more often than not when the player was on the ice. Both New Jersey and Edmonton were poor possession teams, but Taylor Hall managed to post a CF of 52.5%.
As for the Subban – Weber trade, it seems to be due to the Canadian’s Management Team backing the coach over the player. PK Subban had a rocky history with Michel Therrien, bringing to mind Patrick Roy’s poor relationship with coach Mario Tremblay. How did that work out for Montreal? Weber, while still a premier physical defenseman, is on the wrong side of 30 at age 31. Subban, the 2013 Norris Trophy winner (beating out Weber), just turned 27. While both are considered top pairing, right-handed defenseman, Subban is more of a puck mover that will drive the play. Weber had a poor season in 2015-2016; for the first time in his career, he had more offensive zone starts than defensive, which is troubling considering he is regarded as a strong defensive player. Why would Nashville not play their best defensive player in the defensive zone?
The knee-jerk reaction is that the teams from Canada lost both trades. Had the Subban-Weber trade happened two or three seasons ago, it may be a different story. The Hall-Larrson trade is inexcusable and unless Larrson turns into Victor Hedman, will go down as one of the worst trades of all time. Next time a team wants to rush into a trade and get fleeced, call Hextall.

All stats are from www.hockey-reference.com.

Comparisons are from http://ownthepuck.blogspot.com